![\"アングル：大荒れだった1－3月の米国株、政策の不確実性で前途にも暗雲\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.wacoca.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/MUKA3QBYAJIY3A3RATLSC6ZLDI.jpg\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\uff11\u30fb\u56db\u534a\u671f\uff08\uff11\uff0d\uff13\u6708\uff09\u306e\u7c73\u56fd\u682a\u5f0f\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\u66f4\u65b0\u5f8c\u306b\u4e00\u6642\u8abf\u6574\u570f\u307e\u3067\u6025\u843d\u3059\u308b\u306a\u3069\u5927\u8352\u308c\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u5c55\u958b\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u8db3\u5143\u3067\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u304c\u76f4\u9762\u3059\u308b\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5927\u304d\u304f\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u96f2\u884c\u304d\u3082\u602a\u3057\u3044\u3002\u5199\u771f\u306f\u682a\u4fa1\u30dc\u30fc\u30c9\u3002\uff12\uff10\uff12\uff10\u5e74\uff13\u6708\u3001\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u3067\u64ae\u5f71\uff08\uff12\uff10\uff12\uff15\u5e74\u3000\u30ed\u30a4\u30bf\u30fc\/Andrew Kelly\uff09<\/p>\n
[\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af \uff13\uff11\u65e5 \u30ed\u30a4\u30bf\u30fc] – \u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\uff11\u30fb\u56db\u534a\u671f\uff08\uff11\uff0d\uff13\u6708\uff09\u306e\u7c73\u56fd\u682a\u5f0f\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\u66f4\u65b0\u5f8c\u306b\u4e00\u6642\u8abf\u6574\u570f\u307e\u3067\u6025\u843d\u3059\u308b\u306a\u3069\u5927\u8352\u308c\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u5c55\u958b\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3002\u8db3\u5143\u3067\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u304c\u76f4\u9762\u3059\u308b\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u5927\u304d\u304f\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u96f2\u884c\u304d\u3082\u602a\u3057\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n
\uff33\uff06\uff30\u7dcf\u5408\uff15\uff10\uff10\u7a2e(.SPX), opens new tab\u306e\u7b2c\uff11\u30fb\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u7387\u306f\uff14\uff0e\uff16\uff05\u3068\u3001\u3053\u306e\u6642\u671f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\uff12\uff10\uff12\uff12\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u3092\u8a18\u9332\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306f\u5e74\u521d\u3053\u305d\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u653f\u6a29\u304c\u6210\u9577\u3092\u5f8c\u62bc\u3057\u3059\u308b\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u6253\u3061\u51fa\u3059\u3068\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u611f\u306b\u5305\u307e\u308c\u305f\u304c\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306f\u76f8\u6b21\u3050\u95a2\u7a0e\u7d61\u307f\u306e\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u306b\u52d5\u63fa\u3057\u7d9a\u3051\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4fe1\u983c\u611f\u306e\u843d\u3061\u8fbc\u307f\u306b\u52a0\u3048\u3001\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u6c0f\u306e\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u306a\u901a\u5546\u653f\u7b56\u304c\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u3092\u518d\u71c3\u3055\u305b\u3001\u7c73\u7d4c\u6e08\u306f\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u3001\u3042\u308b\u3044\u306f\u6700\u60aa\u306a\u3089\u7269\u4fa1\u9ad8\u3068\u7d4c\u6e08\u306e\u60aa\u5316\u304c\u4f75\u5b58\u3059\u308b\u30b9\u30bf\u30b0\u30d5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u7a81\u5165\u3057\u304b\u306d\u306a\u3044\u3068\u306e\u61f8\u5ff5\u304c\u5e83\u304c\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u305d\u3057\u3066\u4eca\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306f\u3001\u8fd1\u5e74\u306e\u300c\u52dd\u3061\u7d44\u300d\u9298\u67c4\u3092\u542b\u3081\u3066\u682a\u4fa1\u304c\u88ab\u3063\u305f\u75db\u624b\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u3092\u691c\u8a3c\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u3001\u5730\u5408\u3044\u597d\u8ee2\u304c\u8fd1\u3044\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u3092\u5224\u65ad\u3059\u308b\u4e0a\u3067\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u306b\u76ee\u3092\u5411\u3051\u3064\u3064\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n
\uff1c\u58f2\u308a\u5c40\u9762\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3053\u308c\u304b\u3089\u304b\uff1e<\/p>\n
\u7c73\u56fd\u682a\u306e\u73fe\u7269\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u5f31\u6c17\u4e00\u8272\u306b\u8986\u308f\u308c\u305f\u304c\u3001\u30aa\u30d7\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306e\u4e0d\u5b89\u5fc3\u7406\u306e\u5ea6\u5408\u3044\u3092\u793a\u3059\u30dc\u30e9\u30c6\u30a3\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u30fc\u30fb\u30a4\u30f3\u30c7\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\uff08\uff36\uff29\uff38\uff1d\u6050\u6016\u6307\u6570\uff09(.VIX), opens new tab\u306f\u3001\u7bc0\u76ee\u3068\u3055\u308c\u308b\uff13\uff10\u3092\u4e0b\u56de\u308b\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u3068\u3069\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n
\uff33\uff06\uff30\u7dcf\u5408\uff15\uff10\uff10\u7a2e\u304c\u9ad8\u5024\u304b\u3089\uff11\uff10\uff05\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3082\u4e0b\u843d\u3057\u3066\u8abf\u6574\u306b\u5165\u3063\u305f\u5f8c\u3001\u5f31\u6c17\u76f8\u5834\u5165\u308a\u3092\u514d\u308c\u305f\u76f4\u8fd1\uff11\uff10\u56de\u306e\u5834\u9762\u306e\u3046\u3061\uff19\u56de\u3067\uff36\uff29\uff38\u306f\uff13\uff10\u3092\u7a81\u7834\u3057\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306f\uff13\uff17\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3057\u304b\u3057\u73fe\u5728\uff36\uff29\uff38\u304c\uff13\uff10\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3067\u63a8\u79fb\u3057\u7d9a\u3051\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3089\u3001\u4e00\u90e8\u306e\u30a2\u30ca\u30ea\u30b9\u30c8\u306f\u6700\u60aa\u306e\u58f2\u308a\u5c40\u9762\u304c\u307e\u3060\u5230\u6765\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3068\u61f8\u5ff5\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30e9\u30af\u30c6\u30a3\u30d6\u30fb\u30d6\u30ed\u30fc\u30ab\u30fc\u30ba\u306e\u30c1\u30fc\u30d5\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c6\u30b8\u30b9\u30c8\u3001\u30b9\u30c6\u30a3\u30fc\u30d6\u30fb\u30bd\u30b9\u30cb\u30c3\u30af\u6c0f\u306f\u300c\u904e\u53bb\u6570\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u306e\uff36\uff29\uff38\u304c\uff11\uff17\u8fd1\u8fba\u3067\u3042\u308b\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u306f\u3001\u76f8\u5834\u5909\u52d5\u304b\u3089\u8eab\u3092\u5b88\u308d\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u6a5f\u95a2\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306e\u9700\u8981\u304c\u306a\u304a\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u5f37\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308b\u3002\u5f7c\u3089\u306f\u307e\u3060\u30d1\u30cb\u30c3\u30af\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30c1\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\uff08\u767d\u65d7\u964d\u53c2\uff1d\u5168\u9762\u7684\u306a\u6295\u3052\u58f2\u308a\uff09\u3092\u65e2\u306b\u76ee\u306b\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u306f\u660e\u767d\u3067\u306a\u3044\u300d\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
![\"bar](\"https:\/\/www.wacoca.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/1743492844_174_chart.png\")
bar chart showing the last ten corrections of the S&P 500 that did not evolve into a bear market, the VIX rose above 30 in all but one instance, with an average peak level of 37<\/p>\n
\uff1c\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30d5\u30a3\u30bb\u30f3\u30c8\u30fb\u30bb\u30d6\u30f3\u3078\u306e\u9006\u98a8\uff1e<\/p>\n
\u4eca\u5e74\u306b\u5165\u3063\u3066\u304b\u3089\u7279\u306b\u58f2\u308a\u304c\u304d\u3064\u304f\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u307e\u3067\u6570\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306b\u308f\u305f\u3063\u3066\u682a\u4fa1\u5168\u4f53\u3092\u3051\u3093\u5f15\u3057\u3066\u304d\u305f\u8d85\u5de8\u5927\uff17\u9298\u67c4\u300c\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30d5\u30a3\u30bb\u30f3\u30c8\u30fb\u30bb\u30d6\u30f3\u300d\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u30eb(AAPL.O), opens new tab\u3001\u30de\u30a4\u30af\u30ed\u30bd\u30d5\u30c8(MSFT.O), opens new tab\u3001\u30b0\u30fc\u30b0\u30eb\u89aa\u4f1a\u793e\u30a2\u30eb\u30d5\u30a1\u30d9\u30c3\u30c8(GOOGL.O), opens new tab\u3001\u30a2\u30de\u30be\u30f3\u30fb\u30c9\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30b3\u30e0(AMZN.O), opens new tab\u3001\u30a8\u30cc\u30d3\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2(NVDA.O), opens new tab\u3001\u30e1\u30bf\u30fb\u30d7\u30e9\u30c3\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u30ba(META.O), opens new tab\u3001\u30c6\u30b9\u30e9(TSLA.O), opens new tab\u3068\u3044\u3063\u305f\u3053\u308c\u3089\uff17\u9298\u67c4\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u306f\u7b2c\uff11\u30fb\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306b\u5e73\u5747\u7d04\uff11\uff16\uff05\u4e0b\u843d\u3057\u305f\u3002\uff33\uff06\uff30\u7dcf\u5408\uff15\uff10\uff10\u7a2e\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30d5\u30a3\u30bb\u30f3\u30c8\u30fb\u30bb\u30d6\u30f3\u306e\u5360\u3081\u308b\u6bd4\u7387\u306f\u5927\u304d\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3001\u6642\u4fa1\u7dcf\u984d\u52a0\u91cd\u5f0f\u306e\u540c\u6307\u6570\u306f\u3001\u7b49\u30a6\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u5f0f\u306e\uff33\uff06\uff30\uff15\uff10\uff10\u6307\u6570(.SPXEW), opens new tab\u3092\uff13\uff0e\uff15\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u5f31\u30a2\u30f3\u30c0\u30fc\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u843d\u5dee\u306f\u904e\u53bb\uff11\uff16\u56db\u534a\u671f\u3067\uff13\u756a\u76ee\u306b\u5927\u304d\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n
\u305f\u3060\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30d5\u30a3\u30bb\u30f3\u30c8\u30fb\u30bb\u30d6\u30f3\u304c\u682a\u5f0f\u5e02\u5834\u5168\u4f53\u306b\u53ca\u307c\u3059\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u306f\u4f9d\u7136\u3068\u3057\u3066\u5927\u304d\u3044\u3002\uff2c\uff33\uff25\uff27\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3068\u3001\uff33\uff06\uff30\u7dcf\u5408\uff15\uff10\uff10\u7a2e\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u30a6\u30a8\u30fc\u30c8\u306f\u5e74\u521d\u6642\u70b9\u306e\uff13\uff13\uff0e\uff15\uff05\u304b\u3089\u4e0b\u304c\u3063\u305f\u3068\u306f\u3044\u3048\u3001\uff13\uff10\uff0e\uff15\uff05\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n
\u30d7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b7\u30d1\u30eb\u30fb\u30a2\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30de\u30cd\u30b8\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u306e\u30c1\u30fc\u30d5\u30fb\u30b0\u30ed\u30fc\u30d0\u30eb\u30fb\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c6\u30b8\u30b9\u30c8\u3001\u30b7\u30fc\u30de\u30fb\u30b7\u30e3\u30fc\u6c0f\u306f\u300c\u30de\u30b0\u30cb\u30d5\u30a3\u30bb\u30f3\u30c8\u30fb\u30bb\u30d6\u30f3\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u5fc3\u7406\u304c\u6700\u8fd1\u30de\u30a4\u30ca\u30b9\u306b\u8ee2\u3058\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306e\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u6570\u5e74\u306e\u7c73\u4f01\u696d\u5168\u4f53\u306e\u5897\u76ca\u7387\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4e3b\u8981\u30cf\u30a4\u30c6\u30af\u4f01\u696d\u306e\u8457\u3057\u3044\u8ca2\u732e\u5ea6\u306f\u7dad\u6301\u3055\u308c\u308b\u516c\u7b97\u304c\u5927\u304d\u3044\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u4f8b\u5916\u4e3b\u7fa9\u306f\u5f31\u307e\u308b\u304c\u3001\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308b\u308f\u3051\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3060\u308d\u3046\u300d\u3068\u8a9e\u3063\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n
\uff1c\u8abf\u6574\u304b\u5f31\u6c17\u76f8\u5834\u7a81\u5165\u304b\uff1e<\/p>\n
\u4eca\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\uff33\uff06\uff30\u7dcf\u5408\uff15\uff10\uff10\u7a2e\u306f\u7d42\u5024\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\uff13\u6708\uff11\uff13\u65e5\u306e\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u5272\u308a\u8fbc\u3093\u3067\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u3053\u306e\u65e5\u306b\u306f\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\u304b\u3089\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u7387\u304c\uff11\uff10\uff05\u306b\u9054\u3057\u3066\u8abf\u6574\u5c40\u9762\u5165\u308a\u304c\u78ba\u8a8d\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u904e\u53bb\u6570\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u306f\u3053\u306e\u5b89\u5024\u8fd1\u8fba\u3067\u306e\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u7d9a\u304d\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306f\u5148\u5b89\u89b3\u3092\u6255\u62ed\u3067\u304d\u305a\u306b\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n
\u30cd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u30ef\u30a4\u30c9\u306e\u30c1\u30fc\u30d5\u5e02\u5834\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c6\u30b8\u30b9\u30c8\u3001\u30de\u30fc\u30af\u30fb\u30cf\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u6c0f\u306f\u300c\u682a\u4fa1\u304c\uff36\u5b57\u56de\u5fa9\u3059\u308b\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u306f\u73cd\u3057\u3044\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306f\uff13\u6708\uff11\uff13\u65e5\u306e\u5b89\u5024\u304c\u518d\u3073\u8a66\u3055\u308c\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u601d\u3044\u6d6e\u304b\u3079\u308b\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u300d\u3068\u8a71\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n
\u305d\u308c\u3067\u3082\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u306f\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3044\u3055\u3055\u304b\u6170\u3081\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n
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![\"Pie](\"https:\/\/www.wacoca.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/1743492846_437_chart.png\")
Pie chart showing, how since 1928, quarters where the S&P 500 fell more than 5% have been followed by another down quarter some 38% of the time, according a Reuters analysis of LSEG data.<\/p>\n
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