![The "Luckiest" Speedrun in Perfect Dark History: Real or Fake? [Complete Analysis]](https://www.wacoca.com/media/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/1724088847_maxresdefault.jpg "The “Luckiest” Speedrun in Perfect Dark History: Real or Fake? [Complete Analysis]")
On May 31, 2011; a man whom not much is known about, posted an incredible World Record speedrun on Perfect Dark’s Attack Ship level… 4 seconds untied ahead of 2nd place. The run immediately became one of the most contentious in the game’s history, with the runner getting luck even he himself believed to be in “one in a million” territory.
After years of periodic study, and now months of close examination, I’ve analyzed this legendary run and leave the question up to you… do you think Chuya actually got this World Record? Or are the combination of questionable factors surrounding the run too much to overlook?
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The Run: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoDBItqvH6k
Perfect Dark’s Longest Standing Untied WRs: http://rarewrs.free.fr/perfectdark/longeststandinguntied.php?year=2018&month=04&day=04&pub=0
Attack Ship Rankings: https://rankings.the-elite.net/perfect-dark/stage/attack-ship (videos are linked directly on page)
Henrik’s “PD Facts” post about the Attack Ship ending: https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=19067.msg439221#msg439221
Chuya’s forum posts from his Attack Ship runs: https://forums.the-elite.net/index.php?topic=369.msg360581#msg360581
r/speedrun discussion on calculation methods: https://www.reddit.com/r/speedrun/comments/8api84/any_statisticians_in_rspeedrun_who_can_help_me/
Tomohisa Yamashita: https://vimeo.com/212369259
Special thanks to Icy, Henrik “Wyster”, Karl Jobst and Bryan Bosshardt for their always helpful information and expertise
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You can find The-Elite World Rankings with tons of videos linked to it, right here: https://rankings.the-elite.net/goldeneye
Feeling inspired to try for yourself? Sign up for The-Elite rankings here: https://rankings.the-elite.net/join
As always, you can watch me live at http://twitch.tv/rwhitegoose
and follow at http://twitter.com/rwhitegoose
Thanks for watching, and until next time, stay true!
41 Comments
A 19 Second Ending, just once and never before thought possible? Does this mean there's a chance we can find a 19 point Cribbage Hand?
one of the most historic speed runs of all time. full credit to ace for finally matching it.
I come from the future, is real and finally broken!!!
Watched the original video linked and saw that there could be a splice at 2:07–2:08 when the skedar spawns. Background changes a bit of color (gets darker everywhere) and you can clearly see the guns that don't rotate normaly at the exact frame the skedar spawns. Its not smooth….
Looks good to me. Add this one to the record books bois. Cased Closed
My boy is innocent !!
I would have denied this, like, black and white, and then shakey why? In 2011 that's well beyond the ability of any one with even a low to zero budget of recording, plus the lack of sound. Maybe it was really real, but still, gotta at least have put some effort into proof if you're going to the effort of reaching those records why would you want to have any doubt?
My kittens name is byte and even though she is only 13 weeks, I completely forgot that byte is a programming term
Really interesting video with the math. You did a great job breaking everything down. One part to think about… if each run takes 5 minutes, you can average at least 12 in an hour. So about 100 in a day and maybe 500 in a week… so 2000 attempts in a month. The 19-second ending you said was about 1/11000. If someone really wants to beat this record, it could have happened already in a few months.
I really don't understand your whole math rant. Things with low probability are bound to happen with enough attempts.
I play a board game where you roll dice. When rolling three dice, the odds of rolling three ones, rolling again, and getting the same result are 0.002.
That’s 1/3 as likely as what happened here. I’ve played the game for so many years that I’ve done that multiple times and seen it happen even more.
It's real.
Why would anyone attempt runs in a game with rng endings if the community won't accept good rng? It's like buying lottery tickets knowing that if you win, they wont give you the money because "its just not statistically possible that you won." If you want to prove that a run is fake, you can't just tell me he got "too lucky" when you know from statistics that it is clearly possible to get lucky. If you can't show any evidence of splicing or cheating, you shouldn't make videos accusing legitimate runners of cheating.
Could he have changed the settings if you do all the difficulties on all the levals it gives you the option to change enemy health
Easy fix. if the clip do not contain ingame sound (as to be able to spot splicing etc.) I'd suggest not accepting any vid regardless that do not have the original ingame sound, period.
rwhitegoose
How is your thought about it now, after a speedrunner did tie?
When you losers are playing levels thousands of times over and over and there are thousands of you, it is inevitable that these "insane luck" runs are going to come up. Besides, the luck here is not THAT incredible.
Its real
I think is true, if you look the end, he follows the same strat of perfect ace 2.06 record. He just discovered that trick before everyone
If perfectace cant beat it, its cheating
im gonna say that it cant be proven that he cheated, but the video he posted is unacceptable for verification. the point of a video is to prove that your legit, if you edit the video in any way shape or form then it should be viewed as such. an edited video.
Why is the mission complete screen in English?
nah
I have a math degree and even this was a bit tedious than my liking
but is it 1 in 7.5 Trillion?
Complete anal
If you know you know
Goose, do you still think about this?
I don't think Chuya did it, but the maths don't exclude by any means. 32:30 your conclusion sums it up perfectly!
I just seen that Chuya99 has 2:21 on XBLA for attack ship. He clearly couldn't do it again. But I mean who could
1:25 well no shit most old runs was recorded on VHS and mailed in lol you think they had 1080p 4k 120fps back then? 480p probably wasn't a thing.
Time to make a cheated goldeneye run just to get a golden goose video about me
Say he cheated without saying he cheated 😂
in math terms, this is ultra likely. watch matt parkers video about dreams MC speedrun and you know what unlikely odds are. if he would hit all three at 0.1, it would STILL be magnitudes of luck less than what dream "achieved". 6*10^-8 odds would be the tripple 0.1, rarest ODDs in luck history are around guestimated at 1*10^-12. so even a tripple 0.1 is quite likely.
I found your channel again!
This video is fucking legendary. Goose's content is incredible
Complicated math you say? 🤔
It fails the burden of proof, first of all he would have had to edit the recorded run in order to play good quality music over it, which means he must have the original run somewhere which could be proof. That the timer is gone and that the audio is also gone leads me to believe its a spliced run.
Thinking of DaBiGBoOi / Coolkid’s Heatman rng 🌊
I had a look into this myself out of curiosity, I think Chuya did do it legit, but I would’ve taken down the record until Perfect Ace matched it a few years ago. The awful quality is because Chuya was trying to record a PAL N64 on an NTSC-J VCR, it technically recorded, but the video was in black and white and shuddered constantly. Chuya was running on PAL because Attack Ship is heavily advantaged on PAL as the region impacts Elvis’s behaviour. The lack of timer and audio is suspicious, but he might’ve just disabled the timer as he knew it was unreadable anyway to reduce the distraction. The audio isn’t as suspicious either considering video did once exist with original audio, and the run was likely verified with this, but only the music video survived since these were more popular in the Japanese scene, only the more popular one got reuploaded. Although the lack of timer and audio makes it much easier to hide a splice, the shaking video actually makes it a lot harder, since you’d need to make the shaking match up, and a splice is made more unlikely by the fact that the alien spawn times (unknown at the time of the run) match the legit values to within a few 10ths of a second, if the run was spliced without this knowledge they’d be really unlikely to match. Even the music chosen seems suspicious, a song called One in the Million on a run with almost unbelievable luck? Well, that’s not as bad as you’d think considering the music was likely chosen because of the luck, being dubbed over after the video was filmed.
The run seems suspicious on the surface, but in reality it would harder to cheat than people expect, and since <2:10 records had been done for years after it seemed like the most likely explanation was that it was doable, just with immense luck, and this eventually turned out to be true when Perfect Ace matched it. I think if I was in charge of the leaderboards, I would probably take down the run until another record got really close, since the poor quality is so bad and the video is so hard to verify, but now that Perfect Ace has done it I’d put Chuya back on the leaderboard.
How did they start the level off with a pistol? Don't you start off with only a combat knife??
In my very limited experience, it seems like most runners from way back had no idea about the tiny code nuances of a game. So when you analyze a very old cheater video today, you don't find "UNLIKELY" things happening… you find literally IMPOSSIBLE things happening. Since the cheaters didn't know what was technically possible at the hardware/code level, they'd just fudge it to be close enough to fool the human eye. But modern analysis can catch those microsecond inconsistencies every time. The fact that nothing in his video is technically impossible is a strong point in his favor for me.
This is what upsets me .. a friend got destroyed so you gotta call it fake.. all the people you call legendary are all shit and hardly top 10 😂