In recent years, foreign hitters in Nippon Professional Baseball have been struggling more than ever. But why? Is it fair to judge the success of foreigners based purely on how many home runs they hit? Let’s examine data on foreign hitters since 2014.
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20 Comments
Bro your content is so good. Would you consider doing a video going in depth on the Tokyo Big6 league, I feel like people only talk about the NPB or high school koshien but I’d love to learn a lot more about their college league
I think it’s a combination of NPB talent getting much better to the point that the guys they’re bringing in, the fringe AAAA guys or guys who are basically done in the bigs, aren’t basically just gonna “rake.”
Marwin Gonzales just signed with the Orix Buffaloes.
i think we should reconsider WAR as "replacement" player is too subjected.
Hey guys! here are some more fun facts that didn’t make the cut:
– The average foreigner from 2014-2022 hit 12HR and had 0,9WAR per season
– 35% of foreign hitters only played a single season in NPB, these players averaged 0,2WAR per season
– Every single foreigner that hit 20HR in a NPB season got re-signed, save for Garrett Jones in 2016 (he hit 24HR for the Tigers)
– The best foreign hitter based on WAR per year was actually Dae-Ho Lee! He averaged 4.2WAR between 2014-2015.
– Alcides Escobar put up the worst season of any foreigner, when he had -1.9WAR for the Swallows in 2020, hitting a single HR in 402 PA.
– Out of 98 qualified foreigners, all of them (somehow) managed to hit a HR in NPB, impressive since some of these guys were insanely bad.
That’s all folks! If you want to check out the full database you can head over to my twitter @lucasborjapt, happy new year to everyone and let’s hope 2023 is kinder on these hitters 🙂
some of these foreign signings are odd , so maybe teams are already changing the way they see a foreigner can succeed? Astudillo and Marwin Gonzalez won’t even hit 15 homers if they play everyday . Alcides Escobar and Freddy Galvis aren’t power hitters either and I’m sure we can name a very list of guys that would never come close to 30 if we go through all the hitters
Based on my 5 years of management experience in NPB in the OOTP world, foreign hitters that do well in Japan tend to have above average contact (55+), above average eye (55-60+), at least average avoid k (50+), and above average power (60+). Pure power bats with bad avoid k and low contact don’t work in NPB.
Perfect, now I have a new video to show the "he's gonna rake in Japan" crowd.
And yeah, it's ridiculous how the short-leash approach still applies despite NPB's obvious jump in skill level since the days of Bass, Cromartie, and Bryant. Even then, Bryant and Cromartie were solid MLBers before making the jump.
The fact that O'Grady is now a Hanwha Eagle just sucks. He seemed like he was geniunely willing to put in the work to get better.
Also, tbf it wasn't just offense that killed Rojas Jr.'s NPB career. It was killed by signing with a Central League club in general while being defenively useless. A guy like Adam Walker managed to tough it out, but there's a reason why Greg Polanco is now a Chiba Marine
How does this compare to foreign hitters pre-2014?
Lucas Borja is awesome, love reading his stuff on the reddit. Thank both of you guys for making so much quality and accessible content for the rest of us in the anglosphere. I only write game reports on the reddit in season, you guys are the real MVPs of the community.
I think another major factor is how much better pitching seems to be getting in Japan. Average fastball speed has steadily been on the rise over the past few years, and when you look at aces like Yamamoto , Sasaki, and others developing all over the league, its no wonder foreign hitters with steadily reduced playing time are struggling.
Why did they allow Balentien to pass Sadaru's record but refused to do so when Alex Cabrera and Tyronne Woods got close? I remember they just stopped pitching to Cabrera and apologized after intentional walks because they wouldn't allow a foreigner to eclipse a Japanese legend.
Well researched, great content.
Amazing video. Now I’m interested in foreign pitchers in NPB. Like a Miles Mikolas
Arigato for the video (for those who dont know thats thank you in japanese btw)
It would be funny if it were the case that the reason why NPB teams have had such short leashes on foreign players is because they haven’t really noticed just how much the league has improved over the years.
I did not know they had costco in japan
Great video as always!
on the one hand, I can understand why NPB teams would exercise such little patience with foreign hitters considering underpaid fringe major leaguers are a dime a dozen in the USA. They require such a heavy investment both in wages and organizational structure that they kinda need to show immediate results to justify the expense.
But on the other hand, if you're going to sink a lot of resources into a foreign player, wouldn't it make sense to try to make the best of it? I watched Mel Rojas in 2020 (thanks covid) and I was convinced he could be a solid bench bat in MLB, much less a good-to-great hitter in NPB. Sometimes it takes time! He improved year-over-year! What more do you want??
NPB is still expecting 30+ hr from Gaijin Suketto "HELPERS" since they enjoyed having it back in 80's such as R.Bass, B.Horner, A.Cabrerra or W.Cromartie, but now they know it's hit-or-miss situation. they're leaning toward fishing S.American kids to their minor system first, hoping them to explode.