Tonight’s showdown at Great American Ball Park (6:40 p.m. ET) is a rubber match in this NL Central rivalry, with the Cincinnati Reds (80-77) clinging to a faint wild-card pulse—one game behind the New York Mets for the NL’s final spot—while the Pittsburgh Pirates (68-89) play spoiler after their 4-2 upset victory Tuesday. The Reds’ offense, powered by Elly De La Cruz’s .266/.340/.444 slash line, 21 homers, and 101 runs, must ignite against a Pirates staff that’s held opponents to a .716 OPS. Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds (.243 average, 16 HRs) leads a lineup that’s scored just 3.2 runs per game lately, but Joey Bart’s two-game homer streak adds pop.

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The marquee attraction: a generational duel between Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene and Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, two flamethrowers defining the NL’s future. Greene (7-4, 2.74 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 125 K in 101.2 IP) has evolved from strikeout machine to ace, fanning 10+ in four of his last five starts. Fresh off a complete-game shutout against the Cubs, he’s limited foes to a .281 wOBA and boasts a 0.925 WHIP, with pinpoint control (2.2 BB/9). At home, Greene’s 2.45 ERA shines, but the Pirates are 7-1 lifetime against him, outscoring Cincinnati 24-14.

Skenes (10-10, 2.03 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 209 K in 181.2 IP), the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young frontrunner, is unhittable: a league-leading 2.03 ERA, .249 wOBA allowed, and just 5.7% barrel rate. His triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider have yielded a 0.39 ERA in 23 career IP vs. the Reds (4-0, 33 K, 1 ER), outscoring Cincy 20-1 in those starts. Yet, Pittsburgh’s anemic offense has cost him in 15 of 31 outings.

Betting leans under 7.0 total runs, with models favoring a 3-1 Pirates edge on Skenes’ dominance. For the Reds, it’s do-or-die: crack the phenom early or watch October slip away in this low-scoring thriller.

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7 Comments

  1. If you are always pessimistic about your team, and if you are always negative when your team has a chance, you should root for the Yankees or Dodgers.

  2. I grew up with the 8:05pm start time. Games wouldn't get over until after 11pm

  3. and that potential double from benson that was initially ruled that it was caught for the out and then changed to foul ball was major. still think it was a fair ball that would’ve really swung the momentum back to the reds. frustrating as hell

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